Friday, February 8, 2008

Version 2.1.4: Default rates

Thanks to feedback I have modified the popup for the Broad, Narrow, and Specific Market Analysis to show two new data points... One is the average lender rate for Similar Loans. Of course if Specific is too specific the average lender rate may not be displayed. The second is to show the default rate. It looks like this.



Historically if a loan goes 1 month late it is at least 85% sure that it will default. So pessimistically if a loan is late at any stage, it counts against the default rate displayed.

The second change in this release is related to the Group performance summary. If a borrower is part of a group, in the Borrower Info section you can click the magic wand next to the group's name and a popup appears that displays the group's performance. It looks like this:



Old timers may recognize this group. The value for "Estimated ROI assuming all lates default" is the status of the group as of today. So if you had invested $50 in each of the 819 loans you would earn a -1.89%. This number is close. The Prosper API does not provide all the info for me to get the exact number. I do not have debt sales nor the exact month that a lender stopped paying. I actually think the number would be less.

Don't forget to check out my analysis of Prosper's member growth.

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