Thursday, January 17, 2008

Version 2.1.1: new feature on similar loans

Some minor fixes around Similar loans. And a new feature. Once you click on Similar Loans on the detail page a new window pops up showing all the defaulting loans similar to the listing you are reviewing. A new link appears at the top of this new page. "View Additional Info" Okay not a very creative title.

This will popup another new window that shows a month by month breakdown of the defaulting loans... showing how many originated in each month and how many of those are now defaulting. Why is this interesting you ask?

You can see the trend of defaults increasing as loans age. In this example the older loans from 2006 are defaulting at 20-30% yet the average is 9%. So I would expect the newer loans to trend up towards the 20%. So over time you have a 20% chance that this listing will default.

Loan Origination
Year.Month : Total : Late Loans
2006.02 : 4 : 1 : 25.00%
2006.03 : 4 : 0
2006.04 : 13 : 4 : 30.77%
2006.05 : 10 : 2 : 20.00%
2006.06 : 20 : 4 : 20.00%
2006.07 : 13 : 3 : 23.08%
2006.08 : 25 : 5 : 20.00%
2006.09 : 26 : 3 : 11.54%
2006.10 : 24 : 3 : 12.50%
2006.11 : 14 : 3 : 21.43%
2006.12 : 14 : 2 : 14.29%
2007.01 : 33 : 0
2007.02 : 36 : 5 : 13.89%
2007.03 : 39 : 3 : 7.69%
2007.04 : 38 : 8 : 21.05%
2007.05 : 54 : 3 : 5.56%
2007.06 : 46 : 6 : 13.04%
2007.07 : 54 : 5 : 9.26%
2007.08 : 50 : 4 : 8.00%
2007.09 : 40 : 1 : 2.50%
2007.10 : 39 : 1 : 2.56%
2007.11 : 36 : 0
2007.12 : 63 : 0
2008.01 : 2 : 0
Total :697 : 66 : 9.47%

Number of similar loans created in the past month: 65

Dates of significant change: Aug-2006 and Feb-2007
Additional credit info was added on these dates

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