Version 2.1.3: New average rate

First - please let me know if you have any issues with this install. I have changed an underlying component that should not impact anyone... but since there are so many window's configurations ... never say never.

I have been placing the average rate on the listing detail page and the listing search page. This of course gives you guidance on the listing's interest rate to determine if you are getting a good rate.

However, I have used Prosper's rolling 30 day average rate which I have long felt was flawed. This rate is based on huge loan buckets, $1000-$5000 and $5001-$9999 and $10,000-$25,0000. In case you don't want to do the math, that is a $15k spread on the large loans and about $5k on the other ones.

To me there is a huge difference between a $10k listing and a $25k listing.

I have added to my Market Analysis popups the average rate for loans that are similar to the listing. So click on the Broad, Specific, Narrow, etc. magic wands and you will see the average lender rate based on that criteria. This will give you a much more realistic average rate.

I utilize Prosper's marketplace performance page to get this info. So sometimes the Specific selection will not return an average rate if the marketplace performance page has none. Use the Broad in this case.

Version 2.1.2: Updated to similar loans

It once again displays the loans in descending date order. This way it is easier to see the more recent loans and determine why they defaulted. Also on the additional info link on the similar loan page I have added some summary stats like this:

Thru 2006.6 :11 : 2 : 18.18%
Thru 2006.12:48 : 9 : 18.75%
Thru 2007.6 :102 : 15 : 14.71%
Thru 2007.12:102 : 15 : 14.71%
Total :334 : 15 : 4.49%

Basically it shows the number of loans and number of defaulted loans for the various periods. As in this example... even though the average for the entire loan set is 4.4%, you can see a trend as the loans age for the default rate to jump to 14%.

Just another metric I use to look for reasons not to bid on a loan. That is the essence of my advice. The more I study the similar loans prior to bidding, the better I understand what to look for in new listings that I bid... I highly recommend you spend the time as well.

Need your help

Prosper's censors on the forums have decided to silence my posts. For the past week I have attempted to post about 10 replies... none have appeared. I was offering my analysis of particular listings posted in the lender forum... utilizing the features of my extension.

Yet my posts did not have links to my sites, this blog. Instead I referred people to my Prosper member page to read further about my strategies.... which I did list my blog there.

I have requested an explanation from support in an email... no response.

If you have been frustrated with Prosper's new censorship policies on the forums please send support a message complaining.

Maybe if enough lenders complain we can bring a more productive forum back to Prosper.

Version 2.1.1: new feature on similar loans

Some minor fixes around Similar loans. And a new feature. Once you click on Similar Loans on the detail page a new window pops up showing all the defaulting loans similar to the listing you are reviewing. A new link appears at the top of this new page. "View Additional Info" Okay not a very creative title.

This will popup another new window that shows a month by month breakdown of the defaulting loans... showing how many originated in each month and how many of those are now defaulting. Why is this interesting you ask?

You can see the trend of defaults increasing as loans age. In this example the older loans from 2006 are defaulting at 20-30% yet the average is 9%. So I would expect the newer loans to trend up towards the 20%. So over time you have a 20% chance that this listing will default.

Loan Origination
Year.Month : Total : Late Loans
2006.02 : 4 : 1 : 25.00%
2006.03 : 4 : 0
2006.04 : 13 : 4 : 30.77%
2006.05 : 10 : 2 : 20.00%
2006.06 : 20 : 4 : 20.00%
2006.07 : 13 : 3 : 23.08%
2006.08 : 25 : 5 : 20.00%
2006.09 : 26 : 3 : 11.54%
2006.10 : 24 : 3 : 12.50%
2006.11 : 14 : 3 : 21.43%
2006.12 : 14 : 2 : 14.29%
2007.01 : 33 : 0
2007.02 : 36 : 5 : 13.89%
2007.03 : 39 : 3 : 7.69%
2007.04 : 38 : 8 : 21.05%
2007.05 : 54 : 3 : 5.56%
2007.06 : 46 : 6 : 13.04%
2007.07 : 54 : 5 : 9.26%
2007.08 : 50 : 4 : 8.00%
2007.09 : 40 : 1 : 2.50%
2007.10 : 39 : 1 : 2.56%
2007.11 : 36 : 0
2007.12 : 63 : 0
2008.01 : 2 : 0
Total :697 : 66 : 9.47%

Number of similar loans created in the past month: 65

Dates of significant change: Aug-2006 and Feb-2007
Additional credit info was added on these dates

Version 2.1.0: Fixes to site changes

Well it has been awhile... a few features had stopped working when Prosper changed their site. This update restores most features. Nothing new was added but minor features had to be removed because of the Prosper changes.

The most useful features I still believe are the Market Analysis popups and Similar Loans. Don't leave home without them!

Also check out my analysis of Member Growth. Basically Prosper's growth has been static.